Tuesday, April 22, 2008

It's the show that never ends

After six long weeks, Pennsylvania Democrats at last get to decide today what's a bigger deal-breaker: not wearing an American flag lapel pin at all times or getting schooled by Sinbad on your recollection of what happened on your trip to Europe.

A serious prediction: Hillary Clinton will win by somewhere between four to eight points, enough to gain a few pledged delegates on Barack Obama but nowhere near the 70-30 blowout that mathematics dictates she'd need to catch up at this stage.

Another serious prediction: Clinton will stay in the race anyway, claiming her Pennsylvania win means she's won the hypothetical Electoral College, or crossed the commander-in-chief threshold at 3 a.m., or something. Two weeks from today, Obama will make up all the lost ground and then some with a crushing victory in North Carolina. But even then, North Carolina will be a red state that voted against Clinton, and therefore it won't be a "significant state," and therefore it somehow won't count, or something.

Finally, an even more serious observation: Getting schooled by Sinbad is worse. No contest. Come on, the dude got off this line: "What kind of president would say, 'Hey, man, I can't go, because I might get shot, but I'm going to send my wife and daughter. Oh, and take a guitar player and a comedian with you, too."

I feel burned, and I was nowhere near that fire.

Monday, March 24, 2008

4,000

That's the American death toll in Iraq, five years and five days into a war that President Bush has no idea how to end, and presumably no intention to do so even if he did.

This war means 4,000 American families and untold thousands of Iraqi families will go to bed tonight -- and every night -- without someone who meant the world to them. It means thousands of people will go to bed tonight -- and every night -- knowing they never get to spend another day with their best friend. And it means thousands of children will go to bed tonight -- and every night -- without feeling the loving embrace of a mother or father.

This war destroys lives every day. How much longer must it last?

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Unintentional brilliance

CNN's Wolf Blitzer just noted that lingering GOP presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee "captured Kansas decisively ... in Kansas."

Yep, sounds about right.

A tribute to Multiple Choice Mitt

The week shouldn't pass without a remembrance of Mitt Romney, the presidential contender who shared your values. Always.

You guys are pro-choice? Hey, cool, so is he. Well, I mean, he was. Before he remembered he was passionately pro-life. After hyping his endorsement from a pro-choice group during his run for the Massachusetts governorship. And admitting he was "effectively pro-choice" as recently as 2005.

You're all about supporting equal treatment for gays? Hey, he was even stronger on gay rights than Ted Kennedy. Until he realized he was vehemently against the scourges of gay people being allowed to get marriage licenses or serve in the military.

You say you're from Michigan? Say, what a coincidence, because that's his home state, too. Before it became Massachusetts, of course. And there was that time he was from Utah, too. And that summer house in New Hampshire. And...

Poke fun if you must. But before you bid adieu to Romney, bestow upon him the fulsome praise he deserves for the valuable lessons he shared with a grateful nation before he dropped out of the Republican presidential race this week.

Without Romney, how would you have known that the same person could argue that only "a person of faith" is qualified to be president, then turn around and argue that a candidate should not be elected or rejected due to religion?

Without Romney, how would you have known that someone could oppose "the surrender to terror" by surrendering a presidential campaign that got its clock cleaned on Super Tuesday?

And without Romney, how would you have known that a wealthy businessman could spend $30 million of his own money on a White House bid, only to get trounced at the ballot box and get served in a public battle with a computer-generated snowman?

So farewell to the last (kinda, sorta, maybe) great hope for true American conservatism, whose glory days still must be ahead. After all, if Romney is a loyal GOP soldier and doesn't take any more road trips with the dog on the car roof, John McCain surely will pick him as a running mate to burnish his conservative credentials in the Deep South this fall.

Until he remembers Romney didn't win in those places, either.

The Punch is spiked at last

Could it be? Could it be that Alabama has liberated itself from the viselike grip of the Punch Heard 'Round the World once and for all?

State Sen. Charles Bishop, R-Jasper, told his colleagues Thursday that he'd accept his punishment for punching Sen. Lowell Barron, D-Fyffe, in the head last year -- and he won't even sue over it, either. "I'm going to treat everyone in this Senate the same way I want to be treated," Bishop said.

See how easy that was, guys? Now, everyone get to work. There's a budget crisis that's waiting patiently for your attention.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

We'd never miss it, right?

"The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."

Sounds like a great idea. Too bad this may be about to happen.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Late observations on Super Tuesday

Round two of banter about projections, exit polls, momentum, delegate counts, and wall-to-wall television punditry:
  • Barack Obama has won 13 states thus far to Hillary Clinton's eight, but she claimed a big prize today in California, where early returns indicate she's building a margin that's larger than expected. Still, as the pundits have told us time and again, it's the delegate count that matters, and the early indication is that the national split will be about 50/50.
  • John McCain has taken 10 states, but today's biggest winner could be Mike Huckabee, who may well have shored up the Republicans' vice presidential nomination with triumphs in the GOP strongholds of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee. The shock with which the talking heads have greeted the idea that a Southern Baptist preacher would do well in the South has been an endless source of amusement.
  • Clinton's campaign strategist called her Massachusetts win an upset. So it's supposed to be an upset for someone to win in a state where she has led from the beginning and had a seven-point edge in the polls going into today? Really?
  • Creatively named "upsets" aside, the biggest surprise on the Democratic side was Obama's win in Connecticut. The Northeast is Clinton's home turf, a region where she sewed up Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York with relative ease. Her campaign can't be comforted by a loss there.
  • Mitt Romney is done. So very, very done. Who ever would have expected Republican primary voters to reject a guy from Massachusetts who until recently was pro-choice and supported gay rights?
  • Caucuses are Obama's friends. The Iowa caucus vaulted him to prominence, and tonight he's rolled to enormous margins of victory in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, and North Dakota. One possible explanation: Caucuses tend to attract parties' hardcore political junkies, and Obama's support is greater among them. Another possible explanation: Caucuses tend to happen in the West and Midwest, where Obama's support appears to be stronger. A third possible explanation: It's all just an accident of circumstance.
  • Regionalism has continued on the Democratic side. So far, Obama has dominated in the Midwest, and Clinton has swept all the Northeastern states except Connecticut. The wildcards are the West and South, where Obama seems to have a narrow edge right now.
  • Republican contenders keep dropping out, but Ron Paul's vote share stays about the same. As determined and fervent as his supporters may be, a second-place finish in Montana just won't be enough to make it happen.
  • The Clinton campaign made a tactical error by letting Obama have the last word tonight. Had they held off the speech until the media called California for their candidate, Clinton could have made a good case that she had the momentum going forward. As it is, they ceded the traditional "winner's slot" to Obama and helped ensure the narrative instead will be more about Obama's ascendancy.
  • Sure, you mock the American Samoa caucus now. But those three delegates will split 2-1 for Clinton, and as close as the race appears, who's to say that won't be the difference?
The race goes on and on and on. Wouldn't it be funny if this turned out to be the year when Alabama's primaries, for once, would have gotten more attention by staying in June?

Early observations on Super Tuesday

Scattered election notes, in no particular order...
  • Alabama has done its part for Barack Obama. The Illinois senator leads Hillary Clinton 56 percent to 41 percent with 70 percent of precincts reporting. Though he dropped out late last month, John Edwards has more than 5,500 votes.
  • The national media sure moved quickly in calling Alabama for Mike Huckabee, doing so even before the Obama projection. For a while there, John McCain was up by several points despite the check mark by Huckabee's name. But the former Arkansas governor has begun to pull away, leading 41 percent to 38 percent with 69 percent reporting.
  • It's been a better than expected day for Huckabee, who has claimed Alabama, Arkansas, and West Virginia and is running close in several other Southern states. Mitt Romney has taken Massachusetts and Utah, but unless he gets a sizable win in California, it's hard to see how he can hope to stay in the race given the high hopes with which he entered the day. As I suggested a few weeks ago, it's probably down to McCain and Huckabee for the GOP, with a McCain nomination now looking all but inevitable.
  • Barring a serious mistake by one side or the other, there's a real chance the Clinton-Obama race could go all the way to the convention, with the so-called "super-delegates" (a concept that should be abolished) anointing one of them in a decision that would enrage half of the party base.
  • Bill Richardson has responded to the disappointment of his failed presidential bid in much the same way Al Gore did: by growing an ultra-scraggly beard.
  • Huckabee earned points with me by issuing forth a "Roll Tide Roll" during his victory speech in Arkansas. Seconds later, he lost them back and then some by suggesting he'd like to sing "Rocky Top." Pick a side, Mike.
More thoughts to come later.

The Punch yet lives

Thought you'd heard the last of the Punch Heard 'Round the World when a Senate committee decided to drop the matter last week?

Think again. Today, mere hours into Alabama's 2008 legislative session, 19 Democratic senators approved a resolution allowing the Senate to vote, if it later chooses, to require that any lawmaker who hits someone on the floor be accompanied by a security guard. You know, just in case any lawmakers happen to do that sort of thing in the future. But such a hypothetical lawmaker could have the restriction lifted by finishing anger management.

In other, surely unrelated news, a group of legislators today stripped Sen. Charles Bishop, R-Jasper, of most of his committee assignments. When Bishop left the building shortly thereafter, he was, to put it charitably, displeased.

One day down, 29 to go. Learn to love the gridlock.

Newspaper and blog endorsements galore

As I did for the 2006 general election, I've compiled a list of newspaper endorsements for today's Alabama presidential primaries. Unlike 2006, I also included links to the opinions of some major state bloggers, because there seems to be a wider array of views this year than in 2006. My thanks again go out to Doc's Political Parlor for making it easy to find so many of these.

Let me know if I've omitted any noteworthy nods that offer at least a couple of paragraphs of explanation, and I'll add them ASAP. (Only one endorsement per party per site, please.) Here's the list:

Hillary Clinton: Anniston Star, Daily Home (Talladega), Decatur Daily, Montgomery Advertiser, Times-Journal (Fort Payne), Birmingham Blues

Mike Huckabee: None found

John McCain: Anniston Star, Birmingham News, Crimson White, Daily Home (Talladega), Decatur Daily, Montgomery Advertiser, TimesDaily (Florence), Times-Journal (Fort Payne), Tuscaloosa News, Doc's Political Parlor*

Barack Obama: Birmingham News, Crimson White, Selma Times-Journal, TimesDaily (Florence), Tuscaloosa News, Daily Dixie, Doc's Political Parlor*, Hey Jenny Slater, Practically Harmless, Red State Diaries, World Around You

Ron Paul: Daily Dixie, Flashpoint

Mitt Romney: None found

* This endorsement came from guest poster Chauncey Sparks, not the site owner, Danny.

Monday, February 04, 2008

The case for Barack Obama

When I started Red State Diaries more than three years ago, the political atmosphere was even more polluted than it is now.

It was mere days after the 2004 presidential election, a hostile affair that had devolved on each end into barely contained hatred and thinly veiled contempt for the opposing side, and the prospects of healing the nation's 51/49 rift any time soon seemed distant at best. Still, retaining hope that our country could unite again with a common sense of purpose and trying to find others who felt the same way, I added my voice to what was then a relatively small contingent of Alabama bloggers. The site's original tagline said it all: "The musings of an Alabama moderate in a country that isn't as divided as it thinks."

More than 1,300 posts later, the tagline has changed -- I decided moderate was too subjective and went with the more objective independent label instead -- but the sentiment hasn't. I still long for leadership that plays not to the base but to everyone, leadership that tries to bring us together instead of trying to tear us apart, leadership that appeals to our best instincts rather than our darkest fears. After decades of bitter division, I believe our country finally has a chance for that sort of leadership, and I believe that leader's name is Barack Obama.

* * *
The slumping economy is the No. 1 issue for a sizable number of Americans, recent national polls have shown, but for me this election comes down to one word: Iraq. The war has caused tens of thousands of deaths, distracted from our mission in Afghanistan, tarnished our image in the world community, suffered from the Bush administration's botched planning from the very start, prompted tens of billions of dollars of deficit spending, and -- yes -- contributed in no small part to the recession that's either already here or will be soon. For all the talk, mostly from Republicans, that "the surge is working," the fact is that the Iraqis have made virtually no progress toward the political stability vital to any lasting peace, and the surge simply is unsustainable with many soldiers already on their third or fourth tours of duty.

Anyone who plans to keep our soldiers in Iraq with no clear end in sight will not get my vote. That measure rules out every Republican candidate except Ron Paul, whose love for the gold standard and sponsorship of legislation that would strip federal courts of the power to hear cases on gay marriage and state governments' establishment of religion, among other things, must lead me to decline the generous offer to join his revolution.

So that brings it down to a choice between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, both of whom have spent roughly the same amount of time in elective office. They are veritable mirror images on a range of domestic policy issues, including taxes, health care, energy, and environmental protection. Each also pledges to end the Iraq war as quickly as possible and redirect our efforts toward pursuing al-Qaeda. Despite some minor policy divergences, their websites indicate the similarities far outnumber the differences.

But the presidency is about more than just making promises; it's about making correct decisions. And when the Iraq war debate came around in 2002-03, Obama made the right assessment, while Clinton didn't. Well before any insurgencies or "Mission Accomplished" banners or dire State of the Union warnings, scores of Middle East experts and other observers publicly warned that the decision to go to war for proffered reasons that, to be generous, turned out to be not quite accurate, would leave our nation mired in just the sort of difficulties we face now.

Have no doubt that Clinton and Obama -- highly educated, politically astute people -- both heard those analyses. Obama responded with a passionate speech against the war. Clinton responded with an oscillating speech and a vote to authorize the war. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but all other things being roughly equal, it sure does make a great tiebreaker.

Intrinsics also make a great tiebreaker, and Obama has a solid edge over Clinton here. Due partly to some controversial campaign tactics and partly to her opponents' unforgiving, otherworldly antipathy for her, Clinton has been a lightning rod for a decade and a half, inspiring intense loyalty among many voters but intense hatred among many others. Fairly or not, her negative ratings are quite sizable, and if she becomes the Democratic nominee, the country will be well on its way to another 51/49 election that will drag the electorate into another period of destructive, counterproductive "us vs. them" politics.

Obama is a fresh face who hasn't evoked nearly as many fiery negative responses. He also is able to reach out to many people who already have written off Clinton as an option. Obama's stump speeches, laden with rhetorical flourishes and repeated calls for unity and hope, have earned him tremendous support from millions of young voters and independents, and even some old-school conservatives. Among the last category is a lifelong GOP voter who attended a jam-packed rally in Birmingham last week and put it this way: "I've spent the past few elections voting against a candidate. This time, I'm voting for Obama."

* * *
The very first thing I posted on this site was a mission statement. I wrote it partly to introduce my writings to a world of strangers, but more importantly to have a reminder of the principles that inspired me to start writing here in the first place. At the risk of sounding too self-absorbed, allow me to quote the 2004 version of myself: "We live in an unhealthy environment where honest political debate has been replaced by a mindless shouting match, where demagogues can win elections with promises to discriminate against an irrationally feared minority, where people are told they hate America if they deviate from the accepted party line. It's a wretched environment for democracy, for basic human decency, and for our future. It has to change."

Indeed it does. That's why my personal endorsement for Tuesday -- and with any luck, for this fall, too -- goes to Barack Obama.

It turns out that they're just people, too

Interested in a little-known fact about each remaining presidential contender? Sure you are. These gems come from the bottomless wellspring of wonder and merriment that is Wikipedia.

Hillary Clinton: She spent the summer of 1969 on a journey through Alaska, including stints as a dishwasher at Denali National Park and a salmon slimer at a fish cannery.

Mike Gravel: Though he grew up in western Massachusetts, he spoke only French until age 7.

Mike Huckabee: His band, Capitol Offense, has opened shows for Grand Funk Railroad, Willie Nelson, and Percy Sledge.

John McCain: As a young man, his high school nicknames included "Punk" and "McNasty," and he once dated an exotic dancer known as Marie the Flame of Florida.

Barack Obama: His brother-in-law, Craig Robinson, is the head basketball coach at Brown University. (This one actually came from his wife's Wikipedia page, but I'll still count it.)

Ron Paul: As a teenager, he was a Pennsylvania track star who delivered milk to baseball hall-of-famer Honus Wagner.

Mitt Romney: He's a big Roy Orbison fan, but you'll need to keep the eggplant far away from his plate.

Bite-sized presidential trail mix

Just because I haven't written about the presidential primaries here in a few weeks, that doesn't mean I haven't kept up with them. Here are a dozen full-blown posts I've neglected to write on a timely basis -- each conveniently condensed into a single (though occasionally long) sentence.
Stay tuned for more fun facts and actual, substantive discussion of the White House race -- or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

I, I... I just saw that

Eli Manning just played in the Super Bowl. And was on the winning team. And was the MVP for the winning team. And deserved it. Because he led a two-minute drill to win the game of his life. Over the team of the decade. Which was an unprecedented 18-0 at the time. And being billed as the greatest team in history. Ever. Kind of like a certain college football team was a few years ago.

Also, if I didn't know better, I'd think that toward the end of the game, I saw a commercial with a man jump-starting a vehicle via nipple clamps. But surely I had to be mistaken.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Things still happen in Alabama, too

As much attention as the presidential race has gotten this month -- and I'll be sure to pile on some more in the coming days -- it never hurts to take a quick look around the home front. Here goes.

Crime and punishment: The two-year college scandal that led to a Pulitzer Prize for the reporter who unveiled it officially has blown wide open. Former Chancellor Roy Johnson has pleaded guilty to a host of corruption charges and agreed to tell federal prosecutors what he knows about others' transgressions. Johnson, 62, faces a substantial prison sentence for the 15 counts, but the U.S. attorney has promised not to charge his children.

Johnson was a one-time Democratic power player, and the scandal has served as a self-inflicted wound for a party that has faced an uphill battle in Alabama in the last two decades. The plea agreement, which says Johnson "used his official position" to help legislators and state school board members' relatives get jobs with the two-year system, doubtless has Republicans chomping at the bit to see how many big names Johnson will rattle off. Here's hoping, for the sake of fairness and justice, that the investigation continues until all public officials who have broken the law and abused the public trust are punished accordingly.

Time to put those polar bears to work for us: Alabama faces a budget shortfall of more than $800 million next year. The state's Medicaid agency is asking for an extra $150 million just to hold something roughly approximating serve. Gov. Bob Riley will request tens of millions of dollars in new spending on education initiatives but refuses to propose any tax increases to pay for them. So amid all this, what do House Republicans suggest? You've got it: tax cuts. The only possible theory I can see behind this is the hope that we can cut revenues so low that eventually global warming and its polar bear masters will have no choice but to intervene in our favor, scattering afternoon thunderstorms of pure, cold, hard cash all across our beautiful state.

Isn't this supposed to be a 'red state'?: GOP presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee attracted an impressive 2,200 people to Samford University on Saturday for a campaign appearance that included a welcome from Riley. Hours earlier today, Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama drew more than 10,000 people to a speech in Birmingham. I'll have plenty more to say on the White House race later, but until then, chalk this up as yet another indication that the "red state/blue state" divide is just as mythical as tales of Zeus and Loki.

Other play? What other play?: Alabama head football coach Nick Saban passed within about 30 feet of his predecessor, Mike Shula, last week in Mobile. Barely 30 minutes after a Birmingham News reporter noted the near-but-not-quite encounter on his blog, a commenter suggested that Shula, the man renowned for repeatedly calling plays that didn't allow a talented running back to show off his natural gifts, would be a fine choice for (*shudder*) offensive coordinator. The folks at Drunken Omelette responded accordingly: "Within seconds of that comment's posting, former Tide RB Ken Darby walked three steps directly ahead, jumped around to the left and the right, then fell forward in futility."

Monday, January 21, 2008

A message for our times

"Have we not come to such an impasse in the modern world that we must love our enemies -- or else? The chain reaction of evil -- hate begetting hate, wars producing more wars -- must be broken, or else we shall be plunged into the dark abyss of annihilation."
-- Martin Luther King, Jr.
Enjoy your day, and do your part to break the chain.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Parking lot politics

State Sen. Charles Bishop, R-Jasper, is truly sorry about throwing the Punch Heard 'Round the World at his Democratic counterpart Lowell Barron last year. Kinda. From a highly recommended Daily Mountain Eagle story -- seriously, read the whole thing -- wherein Bishop refers to himself in third person more than once:

"I'm not going to apologize for striking him -- only in the chamber that is owned by the state of Alabama, 'cause if I had been smart, I'd have turned and walked off -- and I'd caught him in the parking lot and kicked his butt good."

The Legislature is back in session in 20 days. Brace yourself.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Isn't this football great, football fan?

The main thing I'll take away from Monday night's letdown of a national championship game isn't the memory of LSU viciously power-bombing Ohio State through a ringside table. It's that the BCS games, if we have to continue to be subjected to them instead of getting a playoff, must be aired, as soon as possible, on something -- anything -- that isn't Fox. Why? Glad you asked.

The announcing: Fox does a nice enough job with the NFL and baseball, but its college football broadcasts are so painful to watch that they make me wish I'd never seen a football -- or a college. The announcers step in to call the sport's biggest games after spending the season either calling low-level games or no other college football games at all. Thom Brennaman's BCS play-by-plays could send people to dreamland during three-OT classics. When I say I'd rather hear DAVE call the title game, I'm not kidding.

The pre-game and halftime shows: Joining us now are Chris Rose, Jimmy Johnson, and one or more random partisans of the participating teams. Or maybe whoever happens to be wandering by in the parking lot. Come to think of it, are you free tonight?

The band shots: Were you aware that marching bands often accompany college football teams? Oh, the novelty! Oh, the pageantry! Oh, the endless visual reminders that drum majors still are leading the band, just like the seven previous times we checked in on them! Hey, let's get some fans in those shots, too! Look, there's a close-up of every single fan in the stadium!

The music: There are themes appropriately tailored to make football games seem more epic than they are. Then there's Fox's BCS theme, whose overwrought, fight-scene sound makes me long for the dulcet tones of Alabama Attorney General Troy King's duet with Johnny Cash. (I wish as much as you do that I made that up.)

The Ohio State University: OK, this one isn't technically Fox's fault, but the fact remains that Fox has had the BCS contract for two years, and the Buckeyes have served as title-game cannon fodder for the SEC champion for that same span. Next season looks like Georgia's time, but I'm optimistic that Alabama soon will get its turn in the rotation of SEC teams teeing off on Ohio State to win the crystal football. Maybe it's not too much to ask for that chance before the 2012 Vanderbilt national championship that the Mayan calendar has predicted for all these thousands of years.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

They're important because they say so

Real-life circumstances have bumped that promised Friday update on the Iowa caucuses back a few days, so let's make the discussion about Iowa and today's New Hampshire primaries. So far, it looks like the space-time hole that engulfed college football this year will spend its off-season dallying in presidential politics.

Why you should care: Well, how else do you propose that we allow a few hundred thousand people you've never met to decide the presidential nominees for a nation of more than 300 million?

Who's still in it for the Democrats: Polls? What polls? When the campaign cranked up, Hillary Clinton was inevitable. When he cruised to a sizable victory in the Iowa caucus, Barack Obama was inevitable. Now, with Clinton rebounding from a third-place finish in Iowa to grab a solid win in New Hampshire, it's time to settle in for a high-dollar, back-and-forth battle for the Democratic nomination that might extend even beyond Super Duper Tuesday.

Commentators have floated plenty of hypotheses to explain Obama's win in Iowa and Clinton's comeback in New Hampshire -- the power of the independents, the ascension of the youth vote, the competing desires for change and experience -- but I've heard little about a powerful factor: regionalism. Obama is from Iowa's next-door neighbor Illinois, while Clinton lives in New York, right down the road from New Hampshire. Geography matters, and it's tough to read too much into each candidate winning a home game.

Who's still in it for the Republicans: Remember 2000? It's back again. John McCain has rolled to an easy victory in New Hampshire, baffling no less a political expert than Boston Legal's Denny Crane, who declared last year that McCain couldn't win because "he speaks Bush now." The Arizona senator joins Iowa winner Mike Huckabee at the top of the Republican pack, which still just barely has enough room for Mitt Romney, who stayed viable with a win last week in Wyoming, a sparsely populated, overwhelmingly white state that, unlike its hawkeye and granite brethren, apparently doesn't merit breathless media coverage.

The GOP race appears to be down to Huckabee, the choice of the religious right and social conservatives, and a non-Huckabee alternative on which the party's fiscal conservative and neocon wings have yet to settle. McCain looks like the most probable contender to fill that slot, especially given the national polls that have indicated he's the most electable option the Republicans have. But many in the GOP base see him as a RINO who's soft on immigration and too willing to compromise with Democrats, which leaves the door open for the cash-flush Romney if he starts to pull down a few of those gold medals he keeps touting. The question is whether Huckabee's opponents manage to consolidate behind a single candidate before Huckabee becomes unstoppable. I suspect they will, but not before a brutal intra-party fight.

Who's out for the Democrats: John Edwards polls very well in hypothetical general-election matchups, but he needed a win in Iowa or New Hampshire to get the dollars flowing. That didn't happen, so even if Edwards rebounds with a strong showing in South Carolina, he almost surely won't get the party's nod. Meanwhile, Bill Richardson would do well to reset his sights on a vice presidential bid. Despite his broad experience as a governor, congressman, and diplomat, he never got off the ground.

Who's out for the Republicans: Rudy Giuliani's campaign, hemorrhaging poll support amid multiple scandals, effectively has abandoned every race before the Florida primaries in late January. By then, it'll probably be too late to get any traction. Fred Thompson, as I've noted before, is the Wes Clark of the 2008 Republican primaries. Ron Paul has probably the most passionate supporters of anyone, but their numbers are too small to propel an anti-Iraq war candidate to a win in the GOP race.

Watch out for the wildcards: It won't happen any time soon, but Edwards could hand the Democratic nomination to Obama today if he dropped out of the race, because the candidates are drawing largely from the same pool of young and independent voters. Edwards' continued presence keeps Clinton's hopes alive and also pushes the race in a more populist direction than it otherwise would take. On the GOP side, Paul is getting the cash to stay in the mix for the duration and garner 8 percent to 10 percent of the primary vote, meaning he should have enough delegates to make things very lively indeed at the Republican convention. And don't discount the possibility that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg could stir the pot by dropping a billion dollars or so of his own money on an independent campaign.

Not a promising campaign development: The good news for former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel, D-Alaska, is that he didn't finish last in the New Hampshire primary. The bad news for him is that he is about 200 votes behind U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., who dropped out of the race last week.

Behind the numbers: Beneath all the endless dissections of the horse race and exit polling, one mathematical fact stands out: The Democratic vote totals in Iowa and New Hampshire, both of which historically are swing states, easily have surpassed the Republican turnout. Make of that what you will.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Getting a little musty in here...

Time to clear out some of the undiscussed clutter that's been accumulating around here over the last month:
  • Must everyone treat tonight's Iowa caucuses as an end-all, be-all affair in presidential politics? It's a survey of maybe a couple of hundred thousand people in a state whose population is disproportionately rural and almost entirely white, conducted on a cold early January night at the same time as the Orange Bowl (which is shaping up to be one of the greatest wins in the Jayhawks' history as I write this post). Still, the Iowa results will prompt more than one candidate to drop out by next week. Why, I'm still not sure.
  • Must election pundits still act startled by Mike Huckabee's sudden rise in the Republican presidential polls? Huckabee is everything that the GOP's disgruntled social conservative base could have asked for: an affable Southern Baptist preacher with a populist streak and an unbroken track record of supporting their stance on social issues. Whether he'll be able to pull down dollars from the party's fiscal conservative wing largely will decide his electoral fate, but his ascent has been quite predictable ever since Fred Thompson's somnambulant campaign failed to launch.
  • Must congressional Democrats keep giving President Bush pretty much everything he wants in the budgets? Probably yes, actually. Bush is a wildly unpopular lame duck, but even lame ducks can be tough to beat when they still can flap a veto pen and maintain ground support from their congressional minority. Republicans' numbers on Capitol Hill have been robust enough to force Democrats to accept Bush's top-line figure on the omnibus budget bill and to block more money for the State Children's Health Insurance Program. As for Iraq war funding, no matter how unpopular the conflict remains, and no matter how much Democrats might bluster and posture and complain, they ultimately won't dare to withhold a single dollar in an election year for fear of getting nailed with the poisonous "unpatriotic" and "soft-on-terror" tags, with which many of their opponents will try to nail them anyway.
  • Must the Hollywood writers' strike go on forever? I really haven't missed prime-time television, but the absence of The Daily Show and The Colbert Report has been quite noticeable and, in a sign of the times, a bigger detriment to young voters' efforts to keep track of the presidential campaign than anyone cares to admit. It'd be heartening to see the two sides come to fair terms soon, but with the sides not even talking to each other right now, I'm skeptical.
  • Must every single Alabama football game be an edge-of-
    your-seat heart-stopper decided in the last minute? With the exception of a glorious, take-no-prisoners rout of Tennessee in October, it appeared that way in 2007. The Independence Bowl was no exception, as the Crimson Tide shot to a 27-0 lead out of the gates, playing like a national title contender in the process, only to end the game looking like a 3-9 team praying for the game to end. Mercifully, the clock ran out before Alabama's lead did, giving the Tide a winning record and a much-needed mental boost going into what should be a very eventful off-season for a team that pretty much has to be better next fall.
  • Must Ohio State play, and lose to, a Southern team in the national championship game of every sport? Last year, the Buckeyes were slapped around in the title games in football (by Florida), basketball (Florida again), and soccer (Wake Forest). It's not an auspicious trend for the one and only Ohio State University as it heads into Monday's showdown with LSU for the crystal football.
  • Must you accept my belated wishes for a very happy new year? Well, no, but I sure would like it if you do.
I'll have more to say on the fallout from the Iowa caucuses later on Friday. Try to stay warm until then.

New year, same old me

The bitter, blood-freezing winter wind that has crept stealthily to my home state has snapped me back into posting action after a month-long respite, just in time for those much-ballyhooed Iowa caucuses. More on those tonight, but until then, I'll be trying to warm back up, both on the site and in the real world.

Thanks to all of you who have e-mailed with your concern and to all of you who have kept logging regular visits despite my inexcusable failure to provide anything new for you to peruse. One day soon -- and I believe it shall be this day -- that will change.

After all, what else am I supposed to do when I wake up to find Alabama feeling like Green Bay?

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Saturday live blog, Vol. 9

The live blog has heard your rumors. It's watched you track those planes. It knows you've read every detail of its buyout. But the live blog wants to assure you that it's not planning on going anywhere. Well, at least not today. It's got some continual updating to do.

2:25 a.m. If this isn't the season that gives legs to that whole playoff idea, I don't know what can be. What I do know, though, is it's been great fun to watch and write about, and I very much appreciate your readership throughout the year.

I'll probably churn out some posts about the bowls before it's all said and done, but for now, the live blog is calling it both a night and a season. As always, thanks for reading, and Roll Tide.

2:18 a.m. Locker lofts up a perfect TD pass, but it bounces around to become an INT. Hawaii wins, 35-28, to defend the honor of a perfect season and earn a big-time bowl paycheck. And as wild as this season has been, a win over the big-name opponent to be named later could open the door for a share of a split national title. The last thing you want to do this year is laugh at that idea.

2:14 a.m. The regular season is not at all over. Locker shreds the secondary to get the Huskies inside the Hawaii 5. After a failed scramble, it's second-and-goal with 12 seconds remaining.

2:10 a.m. With 44 seconds left, Colt Brennan connects with Ryan Grice-Mullen for the biggest touchdown pass in Hawaii history. Warriors, 35-28. The only remaining task is to hold on tight.

2:07 a.m. First-and-goal for the Warriors after one of those exceedingly rare Hawaii rushing plays. Fifty-six seconds to glory.

2:02 a.m. Brennan is in the zone. Three quick passes have the Warriors at the Washington 27. Two and a half minutes to go. You can feel the BCS in the air over there from here.

1:59 a.m. Washington quarterback Jake Locker evades pressure and makes a ridiculous first-down play. Unfortunately for him, the officials differ with him on the issue of whether he crossed the line of scrimmage before tossing that beautiful pass. The Huskies punt, and Hawaii has 4:15 to make something of it.

1:51 a.m. At long last, Hawaii remembers what a touchdown pass is, and Brennan gets his fourth of the night. Tied at 28 with eight minutes to go. One of the loudest per-capita little stadiums in the country has erupted in sheer jubilation.

1:40 a.m. Hawaii misses that memo about the TPS reports field goals, just like it misses another field goal attempt. The festival of scoring has ground to a halt in Honolulu.

1:21 a.m. Yes, Hawaii, you can block a field goal. A blocked field goal isn't a touchdown pass either, but it doesn't seem to be covered by the scoring clause. It's still 28-21 late in the third.

1:11 a.m. No, Hawaii, you can't have a field goal. A field goal isn't a touchdown pass, and that's specifically all that you're allowed to have. Washington's lead stays at 28-21 as I ponder how it came to pass that Ron Franklin, ESPN's best play-by-play man, is calling a game that will end well after 3 in the morning on the East Coast.

1:05 a.m. Pass-happy Hawaii converts on a crucial fourth down with an option pitch. It's going to be a late night on the island.

12:39 a.m. The GameDay guys like LSU, too. Something tells me, though, that the only thing that will put the college football world back on its axis is Ohio State claiming that national title it missed out on last year. Or maybe we should crave the disordered splendor of a split title between a two-loss team and Hawaii. The Warriors are back within seven as the second half draws near.

12:23 a.m. Lou Holtz, speaking from the heart to the pollsters: "They don't trust me. They don't give me a vote." This brings me inexplicable sadness. The kind that only a pep talk can erase. (Note: Don't actually drink during the pep talks. You should be sober and completely aware to enjoy them to their fullest.)

12:18 a.m. We still could see Vili roaming around on Bourbon Street. Hawaii has slashed the Washington lead to 28-14 and is on the march again just before halftime.

12:04 a.m. Les Miles on the Michigan job after LSU's SEC title win: "I'm not going there. ... I've got a great place. I'm at home." All right, that's about as clear as words get. Now it's just a matter of getting his John Hancock on the dotted line down in the bayou. A virtual home game for the national title can't hurt on that front.

11:58 p.m. The ESPN talking heads at long last, seem to have absorbed the core, transcendent lesson that this football season offers everyone: None of us really know anything about anything.

11:53 p.m. The state of Alabama officially gets no nice football things this year: Valdosta State took down North Alabama in the Division II playoffs today, meaning it'll be yet another season with a championship game in Florence without the home team there.

11:45 p.m. Colt Brennan finally tosses a touchdown pass for Hawaii to cut the deficit to 21-7. Over on the original ESPN, College Football Final is beginning. This should be fun.

11:37 p.m. Washington 21, Hawaii 0 as the second quarter begins. There'll be no BCS berth for the Warriors at this rate. But Arizona State may get one after holding on to a 20-17 squeaker over its in-state rival tonight. Hey, look, another two-loss team!

11:34 p.m. Les Miles breaks out that "undefeated in regulation" argument for LSU again as ESPN gathers up the coach of every available two-loss to pit them in proxy verbal battle for a shot at the crown. Pete Carroll sounded much more relaxed, probably because he's resigned to the Rose Bowl after, you know, Stanford.

11:11 p.m. Over on ESPN, Georgia coach Mark Richt just finished pleading his two-loss team's case. The Bulldogs are playing the best football in the country right now and probably would win it all were there a playoff. But with that said, they shouldn't get a shot at the crystal football. They didn't win their conference, and that has to be considered a disqualifying factor under the current, badly flawed BCS system. The same goes for one-loss Kansas.

Of the two-loss conference champions, LSU and Oklahoma are the only teams that still merit real consideration. Virginia Tech is out after that stomping from LSU back in September. West Virginia is out after its loss to a sub-.500 team at home. And USC is out after dropping a home game to the singular Cardinal. I'd give the edge to LSU, because the SEC, for all its vicissitudes and multi-overtime chaos, still looks like the nation's toughest conference. If the Sooners slip in, though, LSU has no one to blame but itself.

11:07 p.m. Hawaii is losing 14-0 at home to a sub-.500 Pac-10 team, because the space-time hole won't even let your non-BCS Cinderella story be nice and tidy.

10:50 p.m. No. 1 has suffered No. 2's fate. Oklahoma has proved that the first time was no fluke by annihilating Missouri, 38-17. I think I'll just acknowledge the winner of the I-AA playoffs as the national champion. It's as good as anything else.

10:39 p.m. At least someone sent the Orange Bowl out in style. Florida International schooled North Texas, 38-19, to avoid a winless season and defend the home turf before it disappears.

10:18 p.m. "Boomer Sooner" is running on an endless loop in the Alamodome. Oklahoma is up 35-17, and it's just about time to call that Ohio State vs. Mystery Opponent matchup in the title game.

10:10 p.m. Oklahoma is up by 11 and inside the Missouri 10. It's the perfect ending for a beautiful disaster of a season.

9:57 p.m. The good news for the Mountaineers: They have two more points. The bad news: They have zero more seconds. Pitt caps the regular season in fitting fashion: with a humongous, 13-9 upset of a No. 2 team that makes no sense whatsoever.

9:51 p.m. It's incomplete out of the end zone on fourth down for White, and Pitt is a minute and a half from locking up a career win for Wannstedt. Over in San Antonio, the Sooners have a 14-point lead. Get ready for a two-loss team playing for the gold.

9:48 p.m. Missouri's Chase Daniel gets intercepted off a quite unfortunate ricochet that leaves Oklahoma with first-and-goal. West Virginia is mounting a furious comeback, but Ohio State may be about to clinch a championship shot anyway.

9:45 p.m. West Virginia gets it back with precisely three minutes left after a terrible no-call on obvious holding on third down.

9:42 p.m. Now Oklahoma retakes the lead down in San Antonio. You thought I was kidding about that Hawaii national title, huh?

9:38 p.m. The spark didn't ignite. Pitt stops Slaton a yard short on fourth down. Four minutes left until THE Ohio State University (not just any state university from Ohio, they'll have you know) clinches a national title shot from the comfort of its couch.

9:35 p.m. Best word to describe WVU's Noel Devine: fast. In italics. He returns the kickoff for 47 yards. And now Pat White is back in the game to play through the pain. It's about to get good.

9:31 p.m. Pittsburgh stalls out at the WVU 1 and has to settle for a field goal. Wannstedt is swinging crutches everywhere. Pitt, 13-7.

9:24 p.m. West Virginia's backup quarterback, in because Pat White is hurt, drops the ball milliseconds before getting annihilated by a blitzing Pitt defender. The Panthers recover. Steve Slaton has had a grand total of seven carries for WVU in this game. This prompts certain questions about the game plan.

9:18 p.m. ESPN announcer extraordinaire Mike Patrick: "First down for the Steelers." Moments later, he remembers that just because you see Dave Wannstedt, that doesn't mean it's the NFL.

9:05 p.m. Pittsburgh's LeSean McCoy dashes into the end zone to make it 17-7, but it's called back on a holding call of unclear origins. Wannstedt shares his sentiments with language that's not safe for a family website. Then Pitt, being Pitt, pushes the ensuing field goal try wide left. The game just turned on a dime.

9 p.m. The Versus cameraman takes the hardest hit I've seen all day and lives to tell about it. Wonder if he has any eligibility left?

8:58 p.m. Stanford leads the Big Game by 10 in the fourth quarter. The singular Cardinal is playing on Versus, which the school should enlist to televise all of its games if the past is any indication. Stanford is five minutes away from breaking Cal's five-game winning streak in the series. See there? Some teams can prevent their rival from taking six straight.

8:53 p.m. Someone really needs to start hiding the couches up in Morgantown. West Virginia punts after a comedy of errors. Elsewhere, Missouri scores just before halftime, goes for two, and ties it up on an absolutely delightful double-reverse gadget play.

8:45 p.m. PITTSBURGH LEADS THIS IS CRAZY WORLD MY CAPS LOCK IS BROKEN AND I'VE FORGOTTEN PUNCTUATION. Ahem.

8:33 p.m. Half an hour later, Nos. 1 and 2 are still in low-scoring slugfests. With White injured, West Virginia has let Pitt cut the deficit to four. Also, Missouri is down 7-6 in a championship game that bears a mighty close resemblance to its brother in Atlanta.

8:03 p.m. Oklahoma and West Virginia put up touchdowns within 10 seconds of each other. It's 7-3 and 7-0, respectively.

7:53 p.m. Missouri scores on a top 10 team -- it's only a field goal, but it still counts -- before its prospective national title game opponent scores on a team coached by Dave Wannstedt. Also, West Virginia quarterback Pat White appears to have injured his thumb. Hawaii's championship dreams yet live.

7:33 p.m. Dave Wannstedt is pacing the Pittsburgh sidelines and sporadically bashing his crutches into the turf. And this is with his team playing one of its best games of the year so far on the same day he got a three-year contract extension. Fear the mustache.

7:27 p.m. Oregon State stuffs Jonathan Stewart on fourth down in double OT to win the day's most entertaining non-Sun Belt game.

7:22 p.m. The Oregon schools swap field goals. Overtime, part two. Elsewhere, Pittsburgh and West Virginia are still scoreless because that's what happens in high-stakes rivalry games, Stanford is springing a mild upset of California because that's what happens in lower-stakes rivalry games, and Arizona and Arizona State are still waiting for ESPN2 to switch over, because that's what happens in rivalry games scheduled to air after other rivalry games. Also, Missouri has gone three-and-out to start the Big 12 championship, because that's what happens to No. 1 teams that are underdogs.

7:10 p.m. It's an oddball sequence in Eugene, where Oregon misses a 53-yard field goal attempt to win, only to get a free pass on a Beavers personal foul penalty. Then the Ducks move it to the middle of the field and flap around in all different directions trying to kick another field goal with no timeouts left. That one misses, too. Overtime. Who wants a December trip to El Paso more?

7:01 p.m. Well, it wasn't a missed field goal attempt; it was a blocked field goal attempt. Oregon gets it back with a minute to go.

6:59 p.m. West Virginia opens its play-in game for a national title shot with a drive for a missed field goal. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, Oregon State has mounted a drive for what it hopes won't be a missed field goal attempt for the win.

6:45 p.m. Victory formation for LSU. The Hat grabs the SEC title and -- barring any more breaking news -- gets ready to wale away on Hawaii in the Superdome with his damn strong football team.

6:39 p.m. Ainge finds Arian Foster wide open for an enormous, momentum-changing strike to the LSU 15. Then he immediately throws an interception. Yeah, that's about right.

6:22 p.m. Erik Ainge gets in on some Error of Unspeakable Horror action, lofting a touchdown pass straight into the arms of Jonathan Zenon, who happens to be wearing an LSU uniform today. After the two-point conversion -- successful, unlike last week -- the Bayou Bengals lead, 21-14.

6:19 p.m. Oregon, playing with its third-string quarterback, has scored 28 points in that game they call the Civil War. To head off your inevitable question at the pass: Jonathan Stewart has more than 150 rushing yards on the day, that's how.

6:16 p.m. Tennessee is playing lights-on on defense but still leads by only one. The old-school SEC is back. Eleven minutes left.

6:02 p.m. Verne Lundquist joking about LSU trainers' work to keep the cameras from getting a peek at their healing efforts on quarterback Ryan Perrilloux: "They're secretive about their injury reports, but we all know it's a finger! Unless they're cutting it off..." You dare ask why Verne is the reigning voice of college football?

5:52 p.m. Another missed field goal for the Vols. Does either team want to go to the Sugar Bowl? Is Hawaii that fearsome?

5:46 p.m. Now that the space-time hole is a permanent fixture of the college game, it's somehow fitting that the team that totally dominated the Third Saturday in October would collapse into a heap and the team that lost would emerge as utterly bulletproof. Tennessee snags an INT from Ryan Perrilloux and is near scoring position. Again, stop asking for this to make sense.

5:41 p.m. Glad we got that Rammer Jammer in when we did, because now Tennessee is leading the SEC title game and looking like an entirely different kind of team. I'll begin bracing myself for that epic New Year's showdown with Hawaii now.

5:24 p.m. Now the Vols cap off a good-looking drive with a missed chip-shot field goal. What happened to those 80-79, seven-overtime classics you've been giving us all year, SEC?

5:13 p.m. Tennessee's defense absolutely drills Early Doucet, then forgets to cover Demetrius Byrd down the sideline. LSU, 13-7.

5:09 p.m. Any chance that Oregon could pick a uniform style and stick with it? Preferably one that isn't about four different colors all blended into one. The Ducks have scored but still trail the Beavers by seven. In other Pac-10 news, the Rose Bowl dream is dying across town for UCLA, which is fine, because, like a toucan with fangs and gills, that Rose Bowl dream just shouldn't be.

4:47 p.m. Any chance that guy from the Dr. Pepper halftime quarterback contest has some eligibility left? And some interest in an education from the Capstone? I'm just saying.

4:41 p.m. After its best-looking drive of the day, LSU pushes a chip-shot field goal wide right. Tennessee leads 7-6 at the half, and I have to look at Phil Fulmer's grinning orange-clad visage.

4:32 p.m. And the state of Alabama will get no conference championship love. The Troy comeback drive stalls at the FAU 30, and the Owls hang on for the road win. Meanwhile, LSU has more penalties (seven) than points (six). The ugly continues.

4:25 p.m. Two and a half minutes left. Troy is near midfield. The Trojans were down by 23 just minutes ago.

4:18 p.m. Troy has stormed back to cut FAU's lead to 38-32 with a little more than four minutes left. Meanwhile, LSU faces third-
and-35. Miles might want to get a fourth-down play ready. I suggest the punt. No, Les, not the fake punt. The real one.

4:06 p.m. Les Miles goes for it on fourth down? Never! That his damn strong football team didn't get it is of no relevance.

3:49 p.m. A man is rolling around Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium in a miniature plane with a giant Santa hat on its tail. I'll take this as a cosmic suggestion to watch the SEC title game again.

3:46 p.m. Tennessee is clinging precariously to a 7-6 lead. Virginia Tech has tasted revenge in front of many, many thousands of empty seats to capture the ACC crown. And FAU, up 35-12, is tearing Troy's hopes and dreams of playing in New Orleans' third most important bowl game limb from limb in that stadium that used to be named for certain HealthSouth founders who shall remain nameless.

3:33 p.m. On Sept. 8, Oklahoma State beat Florida Atlantic, 42-6. On Sept. 14, Troy beat Oklahoma State, 41-23. So of course, on Dec. 1, FAU leads at Troy, 28-12. It's irrational. Just accept it.

3:25 p.m. Five minutes into the game, LSU's Jacob Hester has 33 yards. He's on pace for 396. This isn't promising for a defense.

3:20 p.m. Since halftime, Troy has kicked another field goal. Unfortunately, those are worth less than touchdowns, of which FAU has notched another. Owls, 14-12.

3:17 p.m. The Tennessee band cues up that other song it plays that isn't "Rocky Top." Three minutes in, the Vols strike first. Tennessee, 7-0. Down the road in Jacksonville, the Hokies have seized the lead from the Eagles midway through the fourth quarter. The empty seats look on stoically.

3:08 p.m. The SEC championship begins with two displays of ugly. One is the hideous orange-on-orange getup that Tennessee is wearing, and the other is whatever that quasi-onside kick attempt was that LSU tried on the opening kickoff. Sorry, Les, but that can work on the Vols only when DAVE is calling the game. As far as I know, they aren't, unless it's for fun from the couch.

2:43 p.m. Central Florida has finished off Tulsa again. The de facto Sun Belt title game is at halftime. And the literal SEC title game is still about 20 minutes away. That leaves only the ACC title game, which is tied, but about which I still don't care. Break time.

2:27 p.m. Troy and Florida Atlantic have introduced the Sun Belt to the grueling defensive battle. The Trojans lead, 9-7, despite zero touchdowns on a cool, sunny Pike County day.

2:20 p.m. Six straight for Navy, which wins 38-3 and graduates another class of seniors who never lost to a service academy. Anchors aweigh, and enjoy that Commander-in-Chief's Trophy.

2:02 p.m. At some point a while back, Central Michigan finished off the original Miami to repeat as MAC champion. Of far more interest is the de facto Sun Belt title game, where Florida Atlantic leads Troy by a point but just missed a field goal. In other Florida school action, UCF is a touchdown away from mirroring the 44-23 winning margin of its first meeting with Tulsa.

2 p.m. Upon further review, here's the key line of the new ESPN story on the Les Miles situation: "Coach Miles and the chancellor have already worked out a contract that they're happy with, but it hasn't been signed yet." And until it is, nothing is absolutely final.

1:51 p.m. Navy blows the game wide open. Campbell finds the end zone for the second time today to put the Middies up 31-3. Army surely can't wait for Paul Johnson to load up the U-Haul.

1:40 p.m. I flip back to the ACC title game to spot a player with the ABC college football logo shaved into his hair. Words... words fail me. Virginia Tech promptly saves me from the imagery by scoring a touchdown. The game is tied at 16-16 just before halftime. The bad news: The stands still haven't started to fill up. The good news: The Hokies' quarterback, Sean Glennon, gets to wear one of his own team's jerseys for the fourth straight week.

1:30 p.m. Out of my viewing, Virginia Tech has executed that rarest of college football plays: the blocked extra point returned for two points for the other side. It's at least the second instance this weekend, though; Fresno State did it Friday night, too.

1:23 p.m. Half a yard away from a touchdown, Army coughs up the ball. Navy recovers. It's just not the Cadets' year.

1:14 p.m. If they have an ACC championship game and no one attends, does it really exist? Virginia Tech scores to cut BC's lead to 10-7 in a stadium that's way too full of emptiness for a game that allegedly matters. Somewhere, maybe someone cares.

1:04 p.m. So, um, that thing about Les Miles going to Michigan? That thing that's been a widely acknowledged certainty since Appalachian State struck a blow for I-AA teams everywhere? That thing that Kirk Herbstreit just confirmed as recently as three hours ago? Well, never mind. He's staying at LSU after all. Probably. In other breaking news: Yasser Arafat is still dead.

12:42 p.m. Campbell nearly breaks another kickoff return for a touchdown at the end of the half. Navy slips in a 51-yard field goal -- literally, it slides down the back side of the crossbar -- to take a 24-3 lead into the locker room. In other news, Central Michigan is in control, Central Florida leads by eight, and a TD has been scored in the ACC title game for the first time since 2005. BC, 7-0.

12:20 p.m. And things fall apart for Army. The Midshipmen recover a fumble inside the Cadets 10 and punch it in three plays later. Navy, 21-3. If Paul Johnson's guys are worried about his possible departure, it's not showing on the field.

12:14 p.m. Ninety-eight yards later, Navy goes up by double digits. Reggie Campbell drives a dagger by taking the longest kickoff return in school history to the end zone. Navy, 14-3.

12:09 p.m. Army's second try at a 28-yard field goal is more successful. Navy leads 7-3 in a hard-hitting defensive struggle in Baltimore that's quite the opposite of that North Texas basketball game on grass earlier this season.

11:59 a.m. Central Florida opened the C-USA title game with a 10-0 run, then choked away the lead. Now, early in the second quarter, UCF is back on top, 17-13. The winner goes to the Liberty Bowl, where Alabama conceivably could go, so perhaps I should try to care more. In all likelihood, though, the Crimson Tide is headed back to Shreveport, where the opponent, like last year, probably would be another 6-6 Big 12 team, this time Colorado.

Now is as good a time as any to get acquainted with the Buffaloes' starting lineup, and who better to introduce them than Eric Cartman? Yes, that Eric Cartman. And yes, it's real. Here's the Colorado offense, and here's the defense.

11:47 a.m. After a quarter of bending, Army's defense breaks. Zerbin Singleton breaks free from 38 yards out to put Navy up 7-0. I suspect the broadcasters are secretly disappointed that it wasn't a quarterback scramble by Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, just so they could indulge in some transcendent joy by saying his full name yet again. For the record, that's 12 vowels, nine consonants, two hyphens, and a whole lot of fun to enunciate.

11:33 a.m. Need six yards on third down? Hand it to the fullback and make it work. This Navy offense is sick. I've heard you're interested in the SMU job, Paul Johnson, but honestly, I think you can do better. For that matter, I think you're doing better now.

11:26 a.m. Six minutes, 14 plays, a huge fourth-down conversion in the red zone, and a missed 28-yard field goal attempt for Army. That's the sort of thing that'd deflate a lot of teams.

11:21 a.m. Army has come out like a house afire. Five straight losses to your rival and constant talk about how it's going to be six will do that to a team. Well, some teams, anyway.

11:19 a.m. The ACC, C-USA, and MAC all will be playing their title games by noon. The primary game I'll watch during that time frame? Army-Navy. I feel sure it's the right decision.

11:10 a.m. OK, so I didn't post on the Iron Bowl last week. What do you want me to say? Once again, Alabama had momentary flashes of brilliance but ultimately lost another game to an Auburn team that's somewhat above average at best. Once again, Alabama looked pretty good for the first eight or nine weeks of the season before apparently forgetting how to play football in November. Once again, Sisyphus almost got to the top