Saturday, October 31, 2009

College football preview: November edition

It's a sports cliché to say that even two months into the college football season, we don't really know anything. It's also wrong. What do we already know for certain about how things will shake out before Daylight Saving Time comes to a close?
  • Texas will play for the national title. The Longhorns have no more realistic obstacles between here and Pasadena. Who's going to beat them? Kansas, when it isn't busy losing to Colorado? Texas A&M, when it isn't getting plowed by a mediocre K-State team? The Big 12 North champion, when it finally becomes bowl eligible? Please. One spot is taken. And thank God it's not on Fox this year.
  • The SEC champion almost certainly will, too. If Alabama or Florida pushes through undefeated, this question is academic. The more interesting possibility is if Alabama, Florida, or LSU leaves the Georgia Dome with a loss and a conference crown. Protests and caterwauling would issue forth from any remaining undefeated teams. But unless the loss is very late or very bad, it still probably wouldn't matter. The narrative of "best conference this side of the NFC" has emerged, and it is not to be denied.
  • Heisman voters will make every possible effort to give it to Tim Tebow. Once again, this is a situation in which objective facts and reason are optional at best. Tebow is the best player on the No. 1 team, a quarterback, and a media darling to boot, which are the only real qualifications a Heisman winner needs these days. That said, a win by Colt McCoy wouldn't shock me. And for the record, Mark Ingram is this site's official Heisman favorite, unless Rolando McClain and Terrence Cody get traction, in which case it's them. A three-way split would be ideal.
  • Everyone will forget about Boise State. This already has begun, with pundits vaulting Oregon into the top five on the strength of a dominant victory over USC, all the while forgetting that Boise State's win over the Ducks was just as impressive and would suggest that the Broncos are maybe, you know, better. It's not fair, and it makes no sense, but we've established that those aren't the guiding principles here. What matters is the ability to examine the full body of evidence and -- oh, look, shiny new thing is shiny and new!
  • We won't see two non-BCS teams in BCS bowls. Not this year, anyway. If Boise State and TCU win out, their on-field performances would merit trips, but the rules of the game would guarantee a slot for only one (likely TCU). The other team could slip in only if Notre Dame loses again and if four of the six major conferences don't have an available at-large team with two or fewer losses. The odds against that are overwhelming.
Note: All of the above is subject to change. Because, of course, we don't really know anything.


Blogger Altoid said...

I think it is very possible that Notre Dame loses again and Boise get in, as well as TCU.

8:06 PM  

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